Why Waiting Until After The Election Could Cost You
Updated: Oct 23
Many investors are planning to hold off until after the general election, but history suggests that is often the wrong call.
The weeks before a vote tend to be one of the quieter times to buy, and the competition usually returns soon after the result.
People wait for the election, then they come back
Sales data from nine general elections shows New Zealanders buy roughly 12% more properties in the year after a vote than in the year before it.
Activity typically slows in the months leading up to polling day, then picks up sharply within about three months of the result.
We have seen it before. Auckland sales ran about 23% below normal each month in the lead-up to the 2014 election, then recovered straight after it, and the market lifted again after the 2011, 2014 and 2017 votes.
Buyers who wait can end up competing with everyone else who waited.
Right now, buyers have the upper hand
Here's what we mean by that:
Less competition from other investors. REINZ reports investors were less active, possibly waiting for the election.
More choice and more time. Homes took a median 51 days to sell in August, with stock up 9.7% on a year earlier.
Softer prices. The national median sale price was $755,000 in September, down 2.3% on a year earlier. Auckland's average asking price has sat under $1 million for four months.
That window may already be closing. Asking prices rose for a second month in a row in September, and only around one in five buyers say the election is a main factor in their plans.
Waiting has its own risks
Waiting does not remove uncertainty; it swaps one kind for another.
Property supply doesn’t change quickly. Getting a home ready for sale takes weeks, and building new housing takes years. On the other hand, demand can turn almost overnight.
Buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines can return as soon as the election result is known, and history shows many do.
When more buyers chase a similar number of homes, the balance of power shifts back towards sellers. Fewer price drops, more competing offers and less room to negotiate can all follow.
As an illustration, say that returning demand pushed prices up just 2%. On a $755,000 property, the national median, that is $15,100 more for the same home.
Some sellers return after the vote too, but buyers can act faster than new listings and new builds can come to market.
A buyer who acts now pays today’s price. A buyer who waits risks paying that difference and competing with more people to do it.
Additionally, fixed mortgage rates for two to five years are already above 5%, and markets expect a possible OCR increase on 28 October 2026.
On a $600,000 loan, every 0.25 percentage point rise on your mortgage rate adds about $1,500 a year in interest.
Buyers who wait may face tighter lending conditions as well as more competition.
The policy picture is also clearer than it feels. Both major parties have committed to keeping interest deductibility for landlords, and if Labour leads the next government, their proposed capital gains tax would only apply to gains made from 1 July 2027.
The bottom line
Property is a long-term investment, and any property you buy today will likely be held through several governments.
The election will change the mood of the market for a few months. Buying while others hesitate can mean better choice, less competition and more room to negotiate.
If you are ready to invest, it pays to get your finance and strategy in place now, rather than joining the post-election rush.
This article is general information only and is not financial, tax or legal advice. Dollar examples are illustrative. Market data and party policies are as reported at 20 October 2026 and may change.
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Sources
Do Kiwis buy more homes when National wins at the polls?, OneRoof
Auckland investors hold back as election looms, NZ Adviser
NZ home sales slip into decline, NZ Adviser
Most buyers look past election as asking prices lift again, NZ Adviser
Labour rules out interest deductibility changes for landlords, 1News
NZ election tax debate: what property investors need to know, NZ Adviser
