The Best Time to Buy Property In New Zealand
- Ryan Smith
- Apr 12, 2023
- 4 min read
Updated: Aug 5
If you’re looking to invest in property or buy your first home, it’s natural to wonder whether now is the best time to buy property.
It’s a question we hear at Thrive every single week: “When’s the best time to buy property?”
It’s a fair question. After all, no one wants to pay too much or miss out on a better deal down the road.
But here’s the truth: There’s no silver bullet answer.
However, what we can do is look at historical data, market cycles, and long-term trends to understand when conditions are generally favorable, and why the real key to success is often time in the market rather than timing it perfectly.
What the Numbers Are Telling Us
Recent data from TradeMe Property shows:
55% of property investors believe now is a good time to buy
38% of homeowners say now is also a good time
This is significant. Even amid economic uncertainty, savvy investors are preparing to move.
They know that slow markets bring opportunities. When fewer buyers are active, motivated sellers often accept lower offers, giving investors a chance to secure long-term value at a discount.
Understanding Property Market Cycles
Property markets move in cycles, and New Zealand is no different. There are periods of rapid growth, slower plateaus, corrections, and recoveries.
To illustrate this, let’s look at the median sales price in three of NZ’s biggest cities - Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch, from 2003 to 2023.
Over this 20-year period:
Prices didn’t rise in a straight line
There were stretches of slower growth (e.g., post-2008 Global Financial Crisis) followed by hot markets (e.g., 2020–2021)
Despite ups and downs, the overall trend has been consistently upward
Since 2003, median property prices in all three cities have more than tripled.
The Power of Staying Invested
This is where the data gets compelling.
Imagine an investor who bought an Auckland property at the median price of $330,000 in 2003:
By 2023, with the median price sitting at $1,142,800, that investor would have gained $812,800 in equity.
To replicate that without property investment, you’d need to save $33,124 per year, every year, for 20 years, and that’s before factoring in inflation or living costs.
This is why property investment is often called “a long game.” It rewards patience and consistency far more than short-term speculation.
Time in the Market vs Timing the Market
Here’s a key lesson: it’s nearly impossible to “time” the property market perfectly.
Trying to buy at the exact bottom or sell at the exact top is a gamble. Even seasoned economists can’t predict those moments with precision. Instead, what consistently works is time in the market.
By holding your investment long-term, you:
Ride out short-term volatility
Benefit from compounding capital growth
Avoid the costly mistake of “panic selling” during slowdowns
When Should You Buy?
The best time to buy property in NZ is when you’re financially ready.
If you’ve got the deposit, lending approval, and a clear investment plan, waiting for the “perfect” moment often does more harm than good.
Markets move in cycles, and while buying during a dip can be ideal, the difference between buying now or in three months is negligible when your horizon is 10+ years.
Investor Takeaways: Why Now Could Be an Opportunity
Even with higher interest rates and tighter lending, the current market has silver linings:
Less competition: Fewer buyers mean less pressure at auctions and more negotiating power
Motivated vendors: Sellers who need to move are more open to sharp offers
Foundation for future growth: Historical data shows slow markets often precede the next wave of capital gains
For those who can buy now, conditions favor smart, long-term investors who think beyond short-term headlines.
The Bottom Line
If you’re waiting for the “perfect” time to invest, you may be waiting forever.
Property is a long-term game where patience and holding power matter more than precision timing.
The best time to buy was 20 years ago. The second-best time? When you’re financially ready.
How Can We Help You?
We help Kiwis build wealth through property investment. Our advisors will take the time to understand your individual needs and recommend suitable investment properties to help you build wealth and set up your retirement.
What Does This Look Like?
We use a 3-step process:
We start with a Discovery Meeting where we learn about you, your goals, etc., and you learn more about us.
This is followed by a Strategy Meeting where we model your retirement plan, understand key investment concepts, and briefly touch on some investment choices.
Finally, an Asset Selection Meeting where we discuss investment options in more detail and make any recommended adjustments based on what we now know about you.
Who Are We Right For?
We help people make smart investment choices and set up their futures. From first-time investors to experienced investors, we can cater to a wide range of people and help set up their futures through research-based property investment.
How Much Does It Cost?
Our advice is free to you! If you choose to invest, we’re paid by the property developer. This developer-paid model allows us to provide no-obligation property investment advice in New Zealand, without charging clients directly.
What Do We Do, And What Don't We Do?
What We Do
We offer end-to-end New Zealand property investment advice, helping Kiwi investors grow wealth through smart, data-led decisions. Our focus is on quality new builds in strong locations, tailored to your goals, guided by a team that knows the NZ market inside out.What We Don’t Do
We don’t do KiwiSaver, shares, cryptocurrency, or broad financial planning. Thrive is not a generalist firm. We specialise in property investment in New Zealand because that’s where we deliver the most value. By staying focused, we cut through the noise and help our clients make confident, well-informed property investment decisions.
How Do I Start?
Start the process now by booking a time to talk with our advisor by clicking here.
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