Market Update 5 Nov 2025: Forecasting Interest Rates

Giving you exclusive insights into the New Zealand property market and keeping you updated with the latest in property investment concepts.

Property market update for November 5th, 2025. You can read last week's market update here.

As we move further into the final quarter of 2025, new insights from both Cotality and ANZ economists suggest that the New Zealand property market may be entering the early stages of recovery.

While no one is calling a boom, the data points to a shift worth watching, especially for property investors looking to position themselves ahead of the curve.

In this week’s Thrive Market Update, we break down what the experts are saying, what it means for interest rates and property prices, and how investors can respond with clarity and confidence.

Early Signals: Cotality Sees Momentum Building

Cotality’s latest commentary highlights a cautiously optimistic tone. Their analysis suggests that while the housing market remains subdued in many areas, there are early signs of improvement.

Small gains in sales volumes and buyer activity are beginning to emerge, particularly in regions where affordability has improved slightly due to stable or easing interest rates.

“A recovery has to start somewhere,” Cotality notes, “and while sentiment remains cautious, the foundations are forming.”

This aligns closely with what we’ve been saying at Thrive for some time: as interest rates ease, property prices tend to stabilise and eventually strengthen. Recovery doesn’t happen overnight, but it often begins quietly, with subtle shifts in buyer behaviour and lending conditions.

ANZ Forecast: Interest Rates to Bottom Out Late 2025 or Early 2026

Adding weight to this narrative, ANZ’s economists have forecast that mortgage interest rates are likely to reach their lowest point either late this year or in early 2026.

Their recommendation? Borrowers should consider fixing for longer terms now, especially if they’re looking to lock in certainty ahead of potential rate volatility in the future.

This forecast reinforces the idea that we may be nearing the end of the tightening cycle. If rates do fall further, or even remain stable for an extended period, it could support renewed buyer confidence and upward pressure on property prices.

What This Means for Property Investors

While we’re not suggesting a runaway market rebound, the combination of stabilising rates and early recovery signals is meaningful. For investors, this is a time to stay alert, not complacent.

Here’s what to consider:

• Interest rates are a key driver of affordability. As borrowing costs ease, more buyers can enter the market, which can support price growth
  

• Market sentiment is shifting. Even cautious optimism can lead to increased activity, especially from investors who understand the cyclical nature of property
  

• Now is the time to review your lending strategy. With rates potentially bottoming out, locking in longer-term fixed rates could offer both stability and strategic advantage

Thrive’s Perspective: Strategy Over Speculation

At Thrive, we’ve always emphasised that property investing is a long-term game. Markets move in cycles, periods of growth, correction, and recovery are all part of the journey.

The key is not to chase headlines, but to understand the underlying trends and position yourself accordingly.

This moment isn’t about hype. It’s about recognising the early indicators and making informed decisions that align with your long-term goals.

Tools to Help You Plan Ahead

If you’re considering your next move, here are two helpful resources:

• 📊 Check current interest rates to see how the market is tracking
  

• 🧮 Use our mortgage repayment calculator to model different scenarios and plan with confidence

Final Thoughts: Resilience Comes from Insight

The best investors aren’t the ones who try to time the market perfectly; they’re the ones who understand the cycle and act with confidence. Whether you’re expanding your portfolio, refinancing, or simply staying informed, now is a good time to engage with the data and revisit your strategy.

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