Market Update 16 Sep 2025: Why NZ's "Comatose" Housing Market Is Getting Ready For Its Next Growth Cycle
- Ryan Smith
- Sep 16
- 4 min read
Giving you exclusive insights into the New Zealand property market and keeping you updated with the latest in property investment concepts.
Property market update for September 16th, 2025.
The New Zealand housing market continues to tread water through 2025, with Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold describing it as “comatose” - a flatline in nominal prices and a slow burn for most investors.
But while the headlines suggest stagnation, the underlying signals point to something far more strategic: a rare window for investors to position early before the next cycle begins.
From Covid Boom to Market Pause
Between the Global Financial Crisis and the onset of Covid-19, New Zealand’s housing market saw extraordinary growth.
Real house prices rose at an average annual rate of 6% - a pace unmatched by most developed markets. This surge was driven by steadily falling interest rates and strong population growth.
During the Covid era, the Reserve Bank slashed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 1.0% to 0.25%, removed macroprudential lending restrictions, and launched aggressive quantitative easing.
The result?
A supercharged housing market where mortgage lending peaked at nearly $100 billion annually.
But that momentum wasn’t sustainable. As inflation returned and interest rates rose, house prices corrected sharply, especially in overvalued markets like New Zealand and Canada.
Much of the real price growth from 2020–2021 has now been unwound.
2025: A Market in Stasis
So far in 2025, house prices have remained flat at the national level. Real values continue to decline, and the weakness is most pronounced in urban centres like Auckland and Wellington - areas less exposed to export-driven growth.
Despite aggressive rate cuts, buyer urgency remains low. Inventory levels are hovering near decade highs, and new construction continues to add supply. While sales volumes have lifted and median time-to-sell is improving, there’s little pressure on buyers to bid prices higher.
In short, it’s a textbook buyer’s market.
Thrive’s Take: Quiet Markets Reward Confident Moves
At Thrive, we believe quiet markets are where confident moves are made. A buyer’s market isn’t about timing the bottom; it’s about securing leverage, choice, and long-term upside while others hesitate.
This environment offers:
Negotiation power and flexible terms
Access to high-yield properties in resilient suburbs
Time to conduct due diligence and build confidence
It’s not about rushing, it’s about positioning.
2026: The Rebound Begins
Westpac forecasts a 5.4% rise in house prices next year. That’s not speculative hype, it’s grounded in fundamentals:
A broadening economic recovery
Labour market improvements
Household formation, including migrant demand
As demand strengthens, the current stock of unsold inventory will begin to clear, reducing downward pressure on prices and setting the stage for renewed growth.
What Should Investors Do Now?
This is the season for strategic positioning. Whether you're looking to enter the market, expand your portfolio, or reallocate toward higher-yield suburbs, now is the time to act with clarity, not caution.
We’ve outlined the full strategy in our latest guide, including suburb-level tactics and investor frameworks designed for this exact moment.
How Can We Help You?
We help Kiwis build wealth through property investment. Our advisors will take the time to understand your individual needs and recommend suitable investment properties to help you build wealth and set up your retirement.
What Does This Look Like?
We use a 3-step process:
We start with a Discovery Meeting where we learn about you, your goals, etc., and you learn more about us.
This is followed by a Strategy Meeting where we model your retirement plan, understand key investment concepts, and briefly touch on some investment choices.
Finally, an Asset Selection Meeting where we discuss investment options in more detail and make any recommended adjustments based on what we now know about you.
Who Are We Right For?
We help people make smart investment choices and set up their futures. From first-time investors to experienced investors, we can cater to a wide range of people and help set up their futures through research-based property investment.
How Much Does It Cost?
Our advice is free to you! If you choose to invest, we’re paid by the property developer. This developer-paid model allows us to provide no-obligation property investment advice in New Zealand, without charging clients directly.
What Do We Do, And What Don't We Do?
What We Do
We offer end-to-end New Zealand property investment advice, helping Kiwi investors grow wealth through smart, data-led decisions. Our focus is on quality new builds in strong locations, tailored to your goals, guided by a team that knows the NZ market inside out. What We Don’t Do
We don’t do KiwiSaver, shares, cryptocurrency, or broad financial planning. Thrive is not a generalist firm. We specialise in property investment in New Zealand because that’s where we deliver the most value. By staying focused, we cut through the noise and help our clients make confident, well-informed property investment decisions.
How Do I Start?
Start the process now by booking a time to talk with our advisor here.
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