Market Update 22 September 2026: It’s Not a Supply Problem - It’s Why People Aren’t Moving
Giving you exclusive insights into the New Zealand property market and keeping you updated with the latest in property investment concepts.
There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the property market feeling slower. This market update looks at why a slowdown has occurred, and what it means for investors.
Lower sales volumes, less movement, and a general sense that things aren’t quite flowing the way they used to. The assumption is often that this comes down to a lack of available property.
But the data suggests something different.
There’s Still Property Available - That’s Not the Constraint
Recent figures show that total residential sales over the past 12 months have fallen to 89,043, down 3.2% from the level recorded late last year.
That confirms what most people are seeing - activity is softer. But when you look deeper into the numbers, the more important shift becomes clear.
The biggest decline isn’t coming from a lack of listings; it's actually coming from fewer existing homeowners selling their property to buy another.
That segment alone dropped from 25,044 transactions to 23,398, a 6.6% decline.
In other words, the slowdown isn’t being driven by a shortage of homes to buy -it’s being driven by fewer people choosing to move.
What’s Behind the Drop in Movement?
There are a couple of practical reasons behind this.
First, the broader economic backdrop has made people more cautious. When job security feels less certain and household costs are higher, upgrading into a more expensive property becomes a bigger decision.
Second, and just as important, is equity.
During the previous cycle, many homeowners built up significant equity as prices rose. That equity often became the deposit for the next purchase. But with prices now sitting below their peak, that position has changed.
A useful example from the data shows that a homeowner who may have had around $478,000 in equity at the 2021 peak could now be sitting closer to $347,000.
That’s a reduction of around $131,000.
At the same time, borrowing costs have increased - with the example two-year mortgage rate rising from 4.08% to 5.30%.
Individually, neither of these makes moving impossible. But together, they change the decision.
What was once straightforward becomes something that requires more thought, more planning, and more caution.
Why This Changes How the Market Behaves
When fewer homeowners are moving, the market doesn’t necessarily run out of stock. Instead, it loses momentum.
The usual chain of transactions - sell, buy, repeat - slows down.
That has a few important effects:
Properties still come to market, but turnover is lower
Buyer pools shift, with fewer owner-occupiers upgrading
Decisions take longer, and activity becomes more selective
This creates a different type of environment compared to a high-turnover market.
It’s not about a shortage of properties; it's about participation in the market.
What This Means for Investors
For investors, this kind of market behaves differently - and often more predictably.
With fewer owner-occupiers actively trading up, there can be:
More time to assess opportunities properly
Less urgency to compete on every deal
Greater ability to negotiate on well-priced properties
At the same time, the availability of listings means investors aren’t constrained by a lack of choice.
It’s a market where outcomes are more closely tied to the quality of the purchase.
Why Suburb-Level Data Matters More in This Market
When turnover slows, national averages become less useful on their own.
Two suburbs in the same city can behave very differently.
One might have:
shorter days on market
consistent demand
stable pricing
While another might take longer to sell and show softer performance.
That’s why looking at suburb-level data becomes more important in a market like this.
If you want to explore that in more detail, you can view our suburb scorecards here:
They break down key metrics like median price, days on market, and historical growth rates across the main centres.
Final Thoughts
The current market isn’t being held back by a lack of property.
It’s being shaped by behaviour.
Fewer people are moving because the financial step between one property and the next has become larger and more considered.
And for investors, that creates a different type of opportunity - one where having clarity on the numbers, the location, and the long-term plan matters more than trying to predict what the market will do next.
How Can We Help You?
We help Kiwis build wealth through property investment. Our advisors will take the time to understand your individual needs and recommend suitable investment properties to help you build wealth and set up your retirement.
What Does This Look Like?
We use a 3-step process:
We start with a Discovery Meeting where we learn about you, your goals, etc., and you learn more about us.
This is followed by a Strategy Meeting where we model your retirement plan, understand key investment concepts, and briefly touch on some investment choices.
Finally, an Asset Selection Meeting where we discuss investment options in more detail and make any recommended adjustments based on what we now know about you.
Who Are We Right For?
We help people make smart investment choices and set up their futures. From first-time investors to experienced investors, we can cater to a wide range of people and help set up their futures through research-based property investment.
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Our advice is free to you! If you choose to invest, we’re paid by the property developer. This developer-paid model allows us to provide no-obligation property investment advice in New Zealand, without charging clients directly.
What Do We Do, And What Don't We Do?
What We Do
We offer end-to-end New Zealand property investment advice, helping Kiwi investors grow wealth through smart, data-led decisions. Our focus is on quality new builds in strong locations, tailored to your goals, guided by a team that knows the NZ market inside out. What We Don’t Do
We don’t do KiwiSaver, shares, cryptocurrency, or broad financial planning. Thrive is not a generalist firm. We specialise in property investment in New Zealand because that’s where we deliver the most value. By staying focused, we cut through the noise and help our clients make confident, well-informed property investment decisions.
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