Market Update 11 Nov 2025: ANZ’s $2.5B Profit and the Road to 2026: What Property Investors Need to Know

Giving you exclusive insights into the New Zealand property market and keeping you updated with the latest in property investment concepts.

Property market update for November 11th, 2025. You can read last week's market update here.

ANZ New Zealand has just reported a record annual profit of $2.532 billion - up 21% from the previous year. In a time when many Kiwis are still feeling the pinch of inflation and high living costs, that headline might raise eyebrows. But for property investors, the real story lies beneath the surface.

From net interest margins to borrower behaviour and a cautiously optimistic economic outlook, ANZ’s results offer valuable clues about where the market is heading, and how investors can position themselves now for what’s next.

The Stage Is Set for Recovery

In her full-year results commentary, ANZ CEO Antonia Watson struck a forward-looking tone:

“The stage was set for a cyclical recovery… we expect the economy, driven by rural New Zealand, to be heading back to pre-Covid levels late in 2026.”

That’s a bold statement, and one that deserves attention. While the current environment remains cautious, ANZ sees momentum building, particularly in regional areas. With household balance sheets improving, interest rates easing, and house prices stabilising, the bank believes the groundwork for recovery is already underway.

Lending Is Growing, But Borrowers Are Cautious

Despite the economic headwinds of 2025, ANZ’s gross lending rose 4%, and customer deposits increased 5%. That’s a sign of resilience, but also restraint.

The bank noted that many borrowers are using lower interest rates not to spend more, but to pay down debt faster. In fact, nearly a quarter of customers refixing their home loans in the past three months chose to maintain or increase their repayments. That shift in behaviour reflects a more conservative mindset, one that prioritises long-term stability over short-term consumption.

For investors, this signals a lending environment that is still open, but more selective. Banks are rewarding strong profiles and well-structured deals, while borrowers who demonstrate discipline may find themselves in a stronger negotiating position.

Net Interest Margins Are Holding Firm

One of the key drivers of ANZ’s profit growth was its net interest margin (NIM), which rose to 2.60%. Net interest income also increased by 4% to $4.473 billion.

So, what is net interest margin?

It’s the difference between what a bank earns from lending and what it pays to fund that lending, essentially, the spread between mortgage rates and deposit rates.

A rising NIM means banks are earning more from that spread. While that’s good for bank profitability, it also suggests they may be slower to pass on future OCR cuts to borrowers. For property investors, this reinforces the importance of stress-testing lending scenarios and building flexibility into loan structures.

What This Means for Property Investors

The big takeaway? The market is shifting, but not retreating. Banks are profitable, borrowers are cautious, and the economy is slowly regaining its footing.

For investors, this is a moment to:

• Review your lending position: Are your structures still fit for purpose in a higher-margin environment?
  

• Refine your strategy: With a potential recovery on the horizon, now is the time to position ahead of the curve
  

• Get ready to act: As confidence returns, opportunities will emerge, especially in regional markets and value-driven segments

A Stronger Economy Benefits Everyone

While bank profits can feel disconnected from everyday experience, a recovering economy has tangible benefits for all New Zealanders. For property investors, it means:

• More confident buyers and sellers
  

• Improved rental demand and wage growth
  

• Greater stability in lending and property values

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